Surat: The Indian Meteorological Department forecasted the reign of heavy rains in parts of Gujarat after weeks of dry spell. Similarly, according to Weather analyst Ashok Patel, Multiple Rounds of Rain Likely in Saurashtra, Kutch, and Gujarat Between 16–23 August 2025.

Sharing the current Scenario (as of 0530 hrs IST, 14 August 2025), Patel stated that a “low-pressure area over central-west and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal (near north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts) persisted until 0530 hrs IST today. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation (UAC) extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level and tilts southward at higher levels. It is likely to move west-northwestwards towards north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha over the next 48 hours.”

The monsoon trough extends at mean sea level from Sri Ganganagar → Churu → Guna → Jabalpur → Raipur → south-southeastwards to the low-pressure area in central-west and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal.

Patel also pointed out the Upper Air Cyclonic Circulations (UAC):

• Himachal Pradesh & adjoining Jammu: up to 1.5–3.1 km above sea level.

• Kutch & nearby regions: up to 3.1 km above Northeast Arabian Sea & Kutch.

• Northeast Assam: up to 3.1 km.

• Northwest Uttar Pradesh & adjoining Haryana: up to 0.9 km, extending southwards to Haryana & north Rajasthan.

Furthermore, an east-west trough extends from central Bay of Bengal to the northeast Arabian Sea near Kutch. The low-pressure UAC in central-west & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal passes over Telangana, North Maharashtra, and South Gujarat at 1.5–5.8 km levels, tilting southward at higher altitudes.

Rainfall Forecast for Saurashtra, Kutch & Gujarat (16–23 August 2025):

Observation: Scattered rainfall is expected on 14–15 August. The atmosphere will become more conducive for rainfall over a larger area. Multiple rounds of rain are likely during 16–23 August.

Intensity: Light, moderate, heavy, and very heavy rainfall possible. Many days will see widespread moderate rainfall, while on other days, scattered rainfall is likely.

As per Patel, widespread areas in the state will witness around 50–100 mm rainfall, while 100–200 mm rain is expected in isolated areas. Additionally, some locations might witness very heavy rainfall exceeding 250 mm.

Residents are advised to stay alert and monitor local weather updates, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas. DeshGujarat